目 錄
第一部分 航空研制項(xiàng)目管理
第一章 航空研制項(xiàng)目管理概述·································································.2
1.1 我國航空研制項(xiàng)目管理發(fā)展歷程····················································.2
1.2 國外航空研制項(xiàng)目管理發(fā)展歷程····················································.4
1.2.1 美國···············································································.4
1.2.2 歐洲···············································································.6
1.3 航空研制項(xiàng)目的分類與特征··························································.7
1.3.1 項(xiàng)目分類·········································································.7
1.3.2 項(xiàng)目特征·········································································.9
第二章 項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度與成本管理理論·····························································.12
2.1 項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度管理············································································.12
2.1.1 進(jìn)度管理概念··································································.12
2.1.2 航空研制項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度管理特點(diǎn)················································.13
2.1.3 進(jìn)度計劃方法與工具·························································.14
2.2 項(xiàng)目成本管理············································································.17
2.2.1 成本管理概念··································································.17
2.2.2 成本管理的方法與工具······················································.18
2.3 掙值分析法···············································································.24
2.3.1 關(guān)鍵性能指標(biāo)··································································.24
2.3.2 指標(biāo)分析········································································.24
第二部分 進(jìn)度與成本數(shù)智化管控體系與流程
第三章 數(shù)智化管控體系設(shè)計···································································.28
3.1 數(shù)智化管控體系架構(gòu)··································································.29
3.1.1 設(shè)計目標(biāo)與思路·······························································.29
3.1.2 管控體系架構(gòu)設(shè)計····························································.30
3.2 基礎(chǔ)功能模塊介紹·····································································.32
3.2.1 工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)··································································.32
3.2.2 績效控制賬戶設(shè)置····························································.33
3.2.3 績效基線評審··································································.33
3.2.4 成本模型構(gòu)建··································································.34
3.2.5 綜合主進(jìn)度計劃制定·························································.34
3.3 核心功能模塊介紹·····································································.35
3.3.1 掙值管理工具包·······························································.35
3.3.2 績效評估與預(yù)測·······························································.35
3.3.3 偏差分析與預(yù)警·······························································.36
3.3.4 外協(xié)子項(xiàng)目績效管控·························································.38
3.4 部門及人員的角色與責(zé)任····························································.38
第四章 績效控制賬戶設(shè)置······································································.42
4.1 績效控制賬戶的設(shè)置··································································.42
4.2 工作任務(wù)分解············································································.44
4.3 工作任務(wù)與組織分解的集成·························································.46
4.4 績效控制賬戶授權(quán)·····································································.48
第五章 進(jìn)度計劃與狀態(tài)監(jiān)測···································································.49
5.1 進(jìn)度計劃制定與狀態(tài)更新概述······················································.49
5.2 進(jìn)度計劃制定············································································.52
5.2.1 不同層級進(jìn)度計劃····························································.53
5.2.2 進(jìn)度計劃評估··································································.54
5.3 進(jìn)度狀態(tài)監(jiān)測············································································.56
5.3.1 進(jìn)度績效設(shè)置··································································.56
5.3.2 進(jìn)度狀態(tài)測量··································································.57
第六章 成本計劃與狀態(tài)監(jiān)測···································································.60
6.1 成本基線制定與狀態(tài)監(jiān)測流程概述················································.60
6.2 成本基線制定············································································.64
6.2.1 控制賬戶成本計劃····························································.64
6.2.2 預(yù)算基線········································································.65
6.3 成本狀態(tài)監(jiān)測············································································.65
6.3.1 財務(wù)系統(tǒng)的擴(kuò)展·······························································.65
6.3.2 成本數(shù)據(jù)的收集與記錄······················································.66
6.3.3 基于WBS 的成本歸集·······················································.67
6.3.4 基于控制賬戶的成本歸集···················································.67
6.3.5 成本數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換系統(tǒng)····························································.68
6.3.6 成本數(shù)據(jù)對賬··································································.68
第七章 進(jìn)度與成本狀態(tài)分析與預(yù)測··························································.69
7.1 進(jìn)度與成本狀態(tài)分析··································································.69
7.1.1 狀態(tài)分析報告··································································.69
7.1.2 狀態(tài)分析流程··································································.70
7.1.3 狀態(tài)分析步驟··································································.72
7.2 進(jìn)度與成本狀態(tài)預(yù)測··································································.77
7.2.1 進(jìn)度與成本狀態(tài)預(yù)測流程···················································.77
7.2.2 完工估算········································································.78
7.2.3 控制賬戶完工估算類型······················································.79
7.2.4 全面完工估算··································································.80
7.2.5 常規(guī)完工估算··································································.81
第三部分 智能管控模型與算法
第八章 項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度與成本狀態(tài)預(yù)測模型·······················································.84
8.1 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型········································································.84
8.2 AnyLogic 仿真軟件·····································································.85
8.3 控制賬戶績效狀態(tài)預(yù)測模型·························································.86
8.3.1 理論模型構(gòu)建··································································.86
8.3.2 AnyLogic 仿真模型實(shí)現(xiàn)····················································.88
8.4 項(xiàng)目整體績效狀態(tài)預(yù)測·······························································.90
8.4.1 控制賬戶前后搭接關(guān)系建�！ぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁ�.90
8.4.2 基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)計劃圖的項(xiàng)目整體績效預(yù)測····································.90
8.5 仿真測試與分析········································································.93
8.5.1 案例項(xiàng)目與測試數(shù)據(jù)·························································.93
8.5.2 單控制賬戶績效預(yù)測·························································.93
8.5.3 項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度與成本績效預(yù)測···················································.96
第九章 基于多智能體強(qiáng)化學(xué)習(xí)的項(xiàng)目績效動態(tài)控制···································.101
9.1 多智能體與強(qiáng)化學(xué)習(xí)概述··························································.101
9.2 項(xiàng)目多控制賬戶績效動態(tài)控制····················································.102
9.2.1 問題描述······································································.102
9.2.2 控制賬戶的馬爾可夫決策過程···········································.103
9.2.3 項(xiàng)目整體的控制過程·······················································.104
9.3 多智能體強(qiáng)化學(xué)習(xí)算法·····························································.106
9.4 實(shí)驗(yàn)測試與分析········································································111
參考文獻(xiàn)······························································································116